Russia’s air force is facing serious challenges as it struggles with an aging fleet. With roughly 1,200 combat aircraft, including strategic bombers, Russia has around 550 planes that are already “approaching the end of their service life.” At the same time, the country’s military-industrial complex is unable to produce enough new aircraft to replace them.
This situation is made worse by ongoing losses in Ukraine and Russia’s poor maintenance practices. According to Polish defense website Defence24, the country’s aircraft fleet is in a state of decline.
The 550 aircraft approaching retirement are mostly older models, such as around 160 Su-25 attack jets, 100 Su-27 fighters, and 270 Su-24M bombers. Additionally, Russia’s MiG-29s and MiG-31 interceptors, numbering in the dozens, are also nearing the end of their operational life.
In terms of new production, the numbers are alarming. In 2022, Russia’s defense industry delivered 27 new combat aircraft. In 2023, that dropped to just 24, and projections for 2024 suggest the number could be as low as 23.
As for losses, Russian air forces have already suffered significant hits in 2024. In the first half of the year, they lost at least one Tu-22M3 bomber, two A-50 surveillance planes, three Su-34 bombers, and several other jets. Given the intensity of the conflict, especially the Ukrainian drone strikes, these numbers are expected to rise.
Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, including around 50 Tu-95MS, 59 Tu-22M3, and 17 Tu-160 aircraft, remains a key asset, but it too faces challenges. In a worst-case scenario involving NATO, Russia might be able to deploy roughly 400 combat aircraft, including a mix of strategic bombers and tactical fighters like the Su-30, Su-35, and Su-57.
However, it’s clear that Russia’s reliance on older Soviet-era aircraft could become a more prominent feature of their air operations in the near future.
As the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, Russia’s air force is facing mounting challenges that could significantly impact its long-term capabilities. The longer the conflict drags on, the more Russia’s aging fleet and dwindling resources are tested.
With no end in sight, the pressure on Russia’s air assets is intensifying, and it’s becoming increasingly clear that continued fighting could lead to severe consequences for the Russian military.
Russia’s ability to replenish its air fleet is limited, with the country’s production of new combat aircraft struggling to keep pace with the losses. Most of Russia’s air power is composed of aging Soviet-era jets, many of which are already at the end of their service life.
These planes are not only becoming harder to maintain but are also losing their edge in modern combat, especially as Ukraine benefits from advanced Western technology. As the war continues, the strain on Russia’s air force is becoming unsustainable.
With each passing month, the attrition rate of Russia’s combat aircraft increases. The constant use of its aging fleet in high-intensity operations accelerates wear and tear, and while some aircraft are replaced, the overall numbers remain far below what’s needed.
In the long run, this will lead to a reduction in Russia’s operational capacity, as its fighter jets, bombers, and other aircraft are grounded for repairs or simply worn out.
Compounding this issue is the growing inability to replace lost aircraft quickly enough. In contrast, Ukraine’s access to NATO support and modern aircraft gives it a technological edge, allowing it to outmaneuver and outlast Russian aircraft in certain engagements.
Over time, this imbalance could leave Russia with fewer capable aircraft, forcing it to rely on older models with diminishing effectiveness.
Moreover, the longer the conflict continues, the greater the toll on Russian pilots and crews. Maintaining combat readiness under constant pressure is a significant challenge, and the loss of trained personnel only exacerbates the problem.
In the end, Russia’s air force could find itself at a severe disadvantage, with fewer combat-ready aircraft, more outdated models, and an inability to replenish losses. The war of attrition is taking a heavy toll, and as it drags on, Russia risks losing more than just aircraft—it risks losing its ability to project air power altogether.
If the war with Ukraine were to end today, Russia would face a monumental challenge in restoring its combat aircraft fleet. The country’s military-industrial complex is already under strain, and with the ongoing sanctions and production issues, it would take years to replace the lost aircraft at anything resembling an efficient pace.
In 2022, Russia produced only 27 new combat jets, and that number dropped to 24 in 2023. If production rates don’t significantly increase, replacing even 200-300 combat aircraft could take 8 to 12 years.
And that’s assuming Russia could ramp up production immediately, which is unlikely given the persistent technological and logistical challenges it faces.
Even if production is boosted, the timeline would still depend heavily on modernizing existing aircraft and overhauling the nation’s aging fleet.
This isn’t just about building new jets; Russia would need to make substantial investments in technology, training, and infrastructure to catch up.
So, we’re looking at a recovery process that could stretch over 10 to 15 years before Russia’s air force could even return to the level it was at before the war began.
In short, if the war stops today, Russia’s ability to rebuild its air power is a long-term project. With slow production rates, aging technology, and limited industrial capacity, it will take years for Russia to replenish its combat aircraft, and even longer to fully restore the operational readiness of its air force
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